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Economists Lower Their Expectations for GDP Growth –

July 18, 2011

ONE KEY REASON FOR THE MEDIOCRE performance of this expansion: the recessionary conditions that still prevail in the small-business sector. The chart at left tracks the Index of Small Business Optimism released quarterly by the National Federation of Independent Business. Notice that following the two recessions comparable to the recent debacle—those in 1974-75 and 1981-82—rebounds in the NFIB’s Optimism Index were much stronger, moving to levels above 100.

In contrast, the optimism index reached a first-quarter high this year of just 94.1, only to fall back in the second quarter to 91.2. The monthly update for June, released last week and based on a smaller sample of respondents, was even weaker, at 90.8.

Rarely a man to mince words, NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg declared last week: “Small-business owners are registering a vote of ‘no confidence’ in the federal government.” He added, “Who can blame the prevalence of pessimism when administration officials are telling Congress that small businesses need to pay more in taxes to support government-spending programs?”

The peak in the index over its 37-year history happened in the Reagan years, from mid-1983 to early ’84, when the index exceeded 107 for three straight calendar quarters. The update for third quarter 2011 will be released next month.

via Economists Lower Their Expectations for GDP Growth –

LOLZ! Anybody else remember when we were going to have that Summer of Recovery in 2010? Yeah… me neither.

So is small business lacking confidence in the the Federal Government Hope™ or Change™?

  1. July 18, 2011 10:00 pm

    The tax base is shrinking, we have less wealth and fewer people to tax, therefore we must tax those who remain out of existence. Then we’ll move on to taxing… Oh, wait…

  2. Michael Eaton permalink
    July 19, 2011 10:41 am

    Welcome to the GOP-certified and caused “uncertainty”(tm) that failed to materialize from health care, but is filly in place with “Default, what default?” GOP plan…

    Congrats. Wall Street is saying “knock it off”. Are they listening?

  3. July 19, 2011 11:48 am

    You mean as opposed to the DNC and White House approved “Unexpectedly” adjective every time a new bit of horrid economic news showing that the President’s policies are having little to no affect while exacerbating the deficit and debt situation… And if you are arguing that the uncertainties over the passage of ObamaCare never materialized, I think you are keeping your head deeply in the sand, or did you miss the fact that small businesses are refusing to hire, with the uncertainty created by an administration’s policies and anti-business attitude, and the economy remains in the proverbial crapper.

    The President and the DNC is of equal blame here, despite your attempts to shift the hostage taking over to the other side. Your only answer is to raise taxes today with the promise of some cuts tomorrow….

    We’re not going to default on the national debt. We have the income to cover it.

    Do we have enough to cover all of the other spending, to include the massive social safety nets? That is the better question. I say no. I saw its time to start cutting and reforming the nanny-state, returning it to its proper roles and proper size.

    Wean it off the collective wealth of this nation. Much like a rehab clinic weans a crack head off the crack….

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